Interesting fight lines at Olympic

[almly]

There are a couple of fights coming up in the next few months that I really like and a couple value plays that I might go after as well, and I'm not big on value plays.

Nov 16th Morales vs Ayala
They have Morales at -400 and Ayala at + 300 (which is a fuking ripoff). I like Morals alot, he's one of my favorite fighters but Ayala is a very solid fighter. This could be a good value play on Ayala. I'm gonna think about that one and would like some input.

Nov 23rd Gatti vs Ward
Gatti is -150. He was a slight favorite for the first one and now is 1 1/2 to 1. Go figure. I still plan on dumping some SERIOUS dough on Gatti.

Dec 7th Castillo vs Mayweather
I'm really suprised at this line. Mayweather is
-400 and Castillo + 300. I dont get this. Maybe its because of Castillo postponing because of injury. I think Castillo would be a very good value play.

Also Dec 7th Beyer vs Lucas
Lucas is only -130. I have never even heard of Beyer.

Dec 14th Byrd vs Holyfield
Byrd is at -240 and Holy at +170. I think I love this fight. I think Byrd is vastly overrated and expect Holy to put it on him. I might go after this big. What do you guys think?

Does every offshore book have the $500.00 limit for boxing?

 

[franks.]

Whew! lots of questions. hopefully some answers.
Ayala is a good value. I'm staying away UNLESS I
am sure I can bet the dog here. I still like
Mickey Ward. I think the line is a scam. Line on
Floyd is high but I think he wins anyway. I saw
the Lucas line and have seen Lucas a number of
times; be careful here, Why is he only a 30cent
fav? Beyer has been in tough now and again. I was
at the fight with Byrd-Tua and saw Tua crack Byrd
real good with his "famous" left. Well, Chris took it more then once. Evander will run out of
gas I'm thinking.

 

what a strange bout...lucas is the champ and he`s fighting beyer in his hometown of leipzig germany....he must be confident because that`s a tough place to get a decision....facts...lucas and beyer have both fought glenn catley...lucas split 2 bouts(tko`ed in 12...tko`ed catley in 7)....beyer was tko`ed IN germany in 12(his only loss)....lucas has an iron chin and is not really a knockout puncher...neither is beyer(beyer is s lefty)...i think it will be difficult for lucas to get a decision in germany...he has looked very good lately...but i`m thinking a pretty savvy wager may be taking beyer+310 by decision...just a small wager that doesn`t hurt to much if it doesn`t cash..you could offset it by taking lucas straight up -130...this way you are protected...lucas was stopped once(i think it was a cut)but,he is a tough guy to k.o.and beyer is not a big puncher..also,a 2inch height advantage for lucas....neither guy likes fighting outside of there home country..more to come.

[This message was edited by sphincter on 10-21-02 at 12:55 PM.]

 

[almly]

I was also at Byrd - Tua at the Thomas and Mack. I do not think much of Tua or Byrd and was impressed watching Holy against Rahman. I will have a hard time touching Lucas - Beyer being that I have never seen Beyer fight. But the hedge bet sound like a very good idea.

 

[almly]

Alright, these fights are getting close. Any thoughts on one of the prop bets from Morales - Ayala? I was thinking of betting it to go the distance but Morales said he is gonna come out firing with no regard for his saftey.

 

[lakerfan]

Good info.

 

beyer-lucas cancelled...had a nice middle there...then the odds jumped and then kaput...figures...

some strange stuff-doing a small hedge wager...took guty espadas at +220 vs bones adams....then took bones at +125 by decision....bones moving up one division from 122 to 126...with guys this size,4 pounds is significant....espadas is 5-9"....bones is 5_5"....also a reach advantage.....espadas has hit a rough spot in his career...he was a champion....he actually beat morales when they fought,but again,morales usually gets all close decisions....espadas has been tko`d(not a k.o.),might have been a cut or a butt....he`s never been k.o.`ed..adams is a clever boxer(which he will do here)...he likes to fight at his own pace and counterpunch-not be pushed...that`s why he had so much trouble vs ayala...ayala forces you to fight....bones has a little trouble with a hectic paced fight....espadas is an action fighter...not particularly fast or clever...durable...might struggle a bit vs a boxer like adams....but if he presses and uses his height and reach,he has a shot...he was a world class fighter not long ago...wasn`t going to hedge,but,even if bones decisions him,i win a couple bucks...if espadas wins,i win a decent chunk of change...

morales vs ayala...ayala on a roll...but he`s naturally smaller,and was never a big puncher,even at 122...lefty stance is bothersome...morales is not the same fighter since his first barrera fight...he has struggled numerous times,has been hit often and hard(he actually got a gift decision vs guty espadas)and i think the hard fights have taken their toll...but,he`s the taller,strongerguy...looking at tapia vs barrera,i was shocked at how much bigger and sturdier barrera looked in the ring......this has dropped to -360 morales...i might consider taking a shot at morales at-300....that`s the line....probably not going to see it....3 years ago,morales destroys ayala....just not the same morales...ayala is fortunate that in his signature fights,he has not seen strong offensive fighters(tapia and bones adams are clever boxers...not offensive forces)...even at his current diminished stature,morales might pose to much of an offensive threat to a straight up and down,relatively light punching,workmanlike ayala...


i have one dog on the horizon that i am looking at very hard...the odds are quite significant right now...and seem to be rising....as is the case with dogs at these odds,it is obviously a bit of a longshot...but,the potential significant return on a relatively small investment will be hard to pass up....obviously,no guarantee,but,in my estimation,worth the shot....g.l.

[This message was edited by sphincter on 11-12-02 at 01:10 PM.]

 

[almly]

I might try that hedge bet. So basically we're betting that Bones dosent knock the guy out or get a draw. I have never seen Guty fight before but Bones isnt a big knockout guy. Is Gutys chin that solid? Your dog on the horizon isnt Pemberton is it?

 

[Bill799]

I too like Moarales as I don't believe Ayala can knock him out. However, Ayala may just try to survive and take it to a decision, and in boxing you never know. Is it time for a big upset? It has been a while. I used Morales as the last step of a few parlays and don't mind playing the underdog at 3:1 to cover.
HATE TO LOSE MONEY IN THE BANK!

Good luck to all

 

on morales to stop ayala...he has stated he`s coming to throw down on ayala...doesn`t care if he takes shots to land his own....he wants to show up barrera`s win over tapia....will be a small wager,though,if the odds go a little farther in my direction.....g.l.not a step-out play....small...just to make it interesting

 

[almly]

I was thinking the same thing but you never no if their just saying that to boost the PPV ratings.

 

they said ayala looked buff....and morales looked skinny.....well,morales is skinny....arguello was skinny....bob foster was skinny...these thin,wirey guys get tremendous leverage in their punches..how many body-builders have become great champs?..that`s funny....but,look at the odds....morales down to -330....almost at the magic -300...i`m waiting....